As Google explores AI-powered search, doing nothing isn’t an option

A subscription-based Google search? Really? The ears of many marketers, agency people and tech observers will have pricked up at reports that Google may put AI-powered elements of its search proposition behind a paywall.

It would, after all, be the first time Google has considered charging for access to its service and would mark a fundamental change in its business model.

But the significance of Google mulling over fees for its Gemini, AI-powered search access goes way beyond mooted paywalls and points to far bigger questions about the future impact of AI on search as a service and how it operates commercially.

Search becomes a triple track experience

Monetising search has been one of the biggest success stories of recent business history. Google in effect struck oil, gold, and diamonds all at once by creating an algorithm that out-competed anything else in the market and enabled it to leverage and nurture its growing dominance over the subsequent decades.

However, AI promises to fundamentally change this hugely successful model. Search has brought information to us in the form of multiple sources based on how closely website content matches our assumed interest.

But AI search will help us choose not the best source of information, but the best course of action based on that information. And the information generated will be far closer to our needs and interest based on AI behavioural analysis.

AI is already being integrated and tested in Bing’s search engine results in a bid to deliver more intuitive personalised answers or solutions. But Bing’s initiative has failed to nudge the needle in terms of search share gained—Google doing it is a whole different ball game.

The AI search commercial conundrum

If Google pursues this approach, we can expect brands and organisations to be charged to plug into its AI-optimised search solution Search Generative Experience. This immediately raises a series of questions, and potential challenges, for advertisers.

Firstly, how will organisations ensure they still attract attention in an AI search economy where value is initially at least created equal—in other words how will they compete with each other using this model?

Instead of sponsored search and investment in SEO optimisation, brands could bid to pitch their product or service as part of the solution if it meets the AI’s vetting criteria, or suitability to our needs as consumers based on Google’s AI judgement.

Further details from Google may start to cast light on how the AI option will work, but an AI system may initially level the playing field, benefiting small and medium-sized businesses because the model will no longer be based purely on attention supported by SEO and large paid search budgets.

This leads us to another huge challenge. Implicit in Google’s AI model (as it is currently understood) is the need for brands to have a deeper knowledge of how their products and services fit the needs of each specific consumer.

They will also need to be more aligned with the challenges and opportunities posed by consumers. This suggests either organisation’s own first party data will become even more important, or they are relying on what Google knows.

Meanwhile, whilst Google uses web crawling to train its AI, brands who restrict and limit content or do not lean into the initiative, could risk not appearing within its functional AI search stream.

So, what to do? Investing in Google’s AI search risks brands giving up their ‘secret sauce’ (although this may end up being fed back into Google’s model which in turn will be sold back to the market). But if brands sit tight and do nothing with Google’s AI search option, they risk losing the initiative and their market moving on to a point where they are unable to compete.

What happens when AI search dominates?

As AI search matures, trust in AI results or advice will inevitably gain ground and it is very likely consumer choice will flip from standard Google search to AI with considerable implications for attention-based marketing. Thoughts on how well AI-powered search or “Generative Engine Optimisation” (GEO) could work are already being published.

Looking ten years or so into the future, AI will become far more integrated into our lives— surrounding and supporting us, edging us for example towards self-improvement, or planning our perfect holiday with deeper responses to questions and requests for help.

Could this prompt Google and other tech platforms to shift away from the attention economy to one geared to the best positive outcomes for each user? Could big tech in effect become guardians of welfare, education and entertainment? How will the choices made by AI be audited, how will the value to brands be calculated, and how will this be regulated?

Whatever happens, advertisers should remain focused on bidding to achieve their revenue goals even if this means bidding more for AI results, which could be like bidding for share of impressions all over again.

Brands and agencies will need to keep well and truly up to speed with how the switch to AI-powered search plays out. AI powered search results will be a trend just as complicated as the depreciation of third party cookies, only with fewer alternatives for advertisers.

Nick Graham is a senior consultant at Kepler.