Mobile shipments expected to slow this year, Android to thrive: IDC

The research firm forecasts that 1.8 billion mobile phones will be sold this year, compared with 1.7 billion units in 2011. 

According to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, the slowdown is due to a projected 10 per cent in the feature phone market and sluggish global economic conditions. "Many owners of feature phones, sometimes known as "talk and text" devices, are holding on to their phones in light of uncertain job and economic prospects," said the report. "Despite the decline in shipments, feature phones will still comprise 61.6 per cent of the total mobile phone market this year."

In contrast, the smartphone market will help offset the feature phone decline, with shipments forecast to grow nearly 39 per cent y-o-y to 686 million units this year. "Falling average selling prices and component costs, increased awareness and device diversity, and lower-cost data plans" are among the factors making smartphones an increasingly attractive purchase. 

"The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7." 

Over the next five years, IDC projects that Android will remain the most shipped smartphone operating system, although its share will peak this year at 61 per cent. Its share and growth will also be increasingly driven by Samsung sales this year. 

iOS will continue its impressive run of about 20 per cent market share thanks to strong iPhone 4S momentum in North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific, specifically China, this year. Its market share is expected to decline slightly but hold more or less steady at 19 per cent through 2016, said IDC. "Emerging market growth is of utmost importance if iOS is to gain share," the company said.

Despite a slow start, the research firm expects Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile to gain market share from only 5.2 per cent this year to overtake iOS with 19.2 per cent market share in 2016—assuming Nokia's market foothold in emerging markets is maintained. 

IDC also expects that there will continue to be a market for BlackBerry OS-powered devices, despite Research In Motion's current woes, thanks mostly to emerging markets where users are looking for affordable messaging devices. 

"Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape, what remains to be seen is how these different operating systems will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements," said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team.