Asia-Pacific will download 4.6 billion mobile apps by year's end

The 4,6 billion figure from Ovum represents almost a third of the 17.7 billion downloads the world was expected to download this year, according to a forecast in January by research firm Gartner.

The Ovum research also predicts that revenues from paid-for mobile phone apps in Asia-Pacific will hit US$871 million this year, compared with the US$302 million achieved last year. Ovum predicts that the market will be seeing downloads of 14 billion a year by 2016, and annual revenues of US$2.2 billion.

The research firm also expects that, for the first time, more Android apps will be downloaded than iPhone apps this year: 1.8 billion Android downloads compared with Apple's 1.5 billion. Last year, 424 million Apple apps were downloaded compared with 244 million Android apps.

The open platform nature of the Google smartphone operating system is expected to drive growth and by 2016 there will be almost double the number of Android phone application downloads compared to those for the iPhone. Ovum predicts these numbers will be at 6.1 billion and 3.4 billion respectively.

However, although Android phones will lead in total download numbers, the iPhone is still expected to dominate in terms of revenues from paid-for apps, commented Ovum devices analyst Nick Dillon. By 2016, Apple is expected to earn US$808 million from apps, compared with the US$394 million paid for Android apps.

"The huge lead in downloads that Android will take on Apple is being driven by the growth of the platform as a result of its increasing popularity and progress into lower price points," said Dillon.

Other shifts, said the research firm, include the rise of the Windows Phone operating system which is expected to overtake Blackberry for third place in both total number of downloads and revenues by 2015.

In all this downloading frenzy, Asia-Pacific consumers, particularly those who come from affluent backgrounds. are developing clear preferences for app quality and price points, noted Eden Zoller, consumer telecoms principle analyst for Ovum.

"There is less tolerance for second-rate applications and this is making consumers increasingly more selective and discerning," she said. "Charging top-end premiums for smartphone apps is becoming increasingly difficult.  The majority of paid-for apps are in a commodity pricing zone and those capable of pushing above the $5 mark are in the minority."

Unless the app is a "must have", continued Zoller, consumers just aren't willing to pay top dollar. Pinning down what makes an app desirable is tricky, as it varies by customer segment.  But apps that do well are typically either utility apps that increase productivity and convenience, or blockbuster games.

Ovum's analysts predicted that apps will continue to thrive despite the advent of HTML 5 which enables in-browser applications. Dillon believes that the app store will continue to be the primary channel for consumers. "“App stores offer a familiar environment for consumer to discover, download and purchase apps, and we anticipate that the majority of app stores will list a mix of both HTML5 and native applications in their catalogues in the future.”

An earlier study by Google and Ipsos found that consumers in Asia-Pacific, particularly in its developing nations, are keen to download more apps and use their smartphones even more heavily in future.

"The outlook for the long-term is positive with consumers set to continue using apps to add features to their phones," said Zoller.