The story goes that former Chinese premier and party leader Zhou Enlai was once asked, in the early 1970s, what he thought the historical impact of the French Revolution of 1789 had been on world events. After a pause, he replied that it was probably "too early to say".
It is a cautious view we should bear in mind in trying to assess exactly what is happening in China and Asia-Pacific at the moment relative to its position in the world and its ability to sustain rapid growth and development. It would also be nice to get a reliable sense of how the PR and marketing services markets may evolve.
No one can be in any doubt that the tectonic plates of political and economic power are shifting. Claims for the decline of the United States and Europe may or may not be premature or exaggerated.
But clearly the enormous growth in 'Chindia' as well as other key Asian markets such as Indonesia, their access to enormous capital surpluses with which they are able to invest in infrastructure (as well as fund Western debt), the drive of dynamic entrepreneurship, the huge appetite for more sophisticated branded good, all point to a fundamental shift.
Not for nothing do most of us who work in PR and marketing in Asia-Pacific believe we work in the world's most fascinating and dynamic market places.
Meanwhile, major Chinese and other Asian corporations flex their muscles and talk with realistic ambition and growing credibility of taking on the world with homegrown brands. There is a greater demand for value-added strategic advice in addition to agency execution.
And finally, with the exception of North Korea and Myanmar, nearly every Asian country, whatever its political system, is showing evidence of greater pluralism in which relationships with different key stakeholder groups becomes increasingly important, to companies, governments and NGOs. This is clearly sweet news for PR and other consultancies capable of addressing the need.
All this is true. But let's not get blown away by our own rhetoric. The fact is that for most marketing services and PR firms, Asia-Pacific revenue and profits remain very modest in comparison to the US and Europe. There is some narrowing of the gap, but hardly at an accelerated pace. While most regional markets have recovered strongly, so has the US. Only Europe continues to look pallid, but even there the size of the market remains greatly in excess of Asia.
Then consider the nature of the market itself. Some may smile wryly listening to the leaders of Western corporations tell their own stakeholders that China (along with other BRIC countries) is their biggest business priority. 'Wryly' because it is not yet reflected in the marketing budgets they are investing there. We all know that China alone is a huge and complex market; hardly the cheapest to operate in either. Yet typically, PR budgets may be as small as one twentieth of a comparable programme in North America and a tenth of that in Europe.
That may of course change over time. One imagines that the relentless forces of globalisation will eventually align with market realities. But for the moment, there is quite some way to go.
We all know that the world is fundamentally interconnected. No country is an island, whether the issue is trade, influenza, terrorism or AIDS. But this idea of globalisation is sometimes confused with another that is more questionable. This is the idea that not only is the world more interconnected, but also more harmonised. According to this thesis, national and cultural differences will eventually erode and consumers all over the world will want the same things. Superficially, the growth of global brands offer some comfort to the view as smart marketers migrate across borders and cultures.
But I remain sceptical. The best evidence suggests that diversity remains as strong as ever. The Web 2.0 environment which brings the world closer together is the same environment which legitimises and empowers a myriad of different interest groups and communities to be resolutely different.
Why does this matter? Because one of the keys to developing Asia-Pacific PR and marketing services properly lies in the diversity we are able to bring to the table.Yes, we have to have strong international networks and understand how to manage multi-market programmes from strong and coherent hubs. But we also have to be rooted in the markets we operate in.
At Weber Shandwick, while not yet perfect, we are committed to the authenticity and diversity of our senior management team and staff in Asia. There is still plenty of room for skilled and experienced expatriates to come to the region. But having Western folks dominating entire management teams, which far too many agencies here have, is not good business.
Diversity, and unlocking the talent of our people in Asia, is the key to unlocking the full potential of this exciting market. As long as it attempts to be just a pale imitation of what works in the US and Europe, the fulfillment of that potential will remain incomplete.
This article was originally published in the 26 August 2010 supplement PR Communicated.