Social overtakes search for adspend in landmark global shift: Warc Media

Social media is now the largest channel worldwide in terms of adspend, having overtaken paid search last year, and is forecast to total $247.3 billion in 2024, up 14.3% year on year.

Data sourced from GWI shows that time spent with social platforms has increased by 50% over the past decade, from an average daily consumption of 95 minutes to 152 minutes in 2024, and according to Data.ai, worldwide user numbers across social platforms have risen by 169% since 2014.

Alex Brownsell, head of content, Warc Media, said: “Much of social media’s success has been driven by Meta’s remarkable renaissance. However, social’s stronghold on budgets can also be seen in TikTok’s rise, and a return to double-digit ad revenue growth at Snapchat and Pinterest.

“However, with this dominance comes challenges, such as rising advertising loads in social environments, and the impact of AI on media planning. In this report, we take a holistic view of the global social media landscape, which shows no sign of losing momentum.”

The Warc Media report, entitled Social Media Reaches New Peaks, indicated that social media’s projected growth of 14.3% in 2024 would mark a slight deceleration from the 16% rate in 2023. 

Spend on social platforms in the west is growing fastest, fuelled by Chinese brands targeting US and European audiences, according to the report. 

Meta forecast to overtake linear TV in ad revenue in 2025

According to Warc Media, Meta is set to overtake global linear TV in adspend in 2025, with the average user Reels session now featuring seven or more ads.

Both Facebook and Instagram grew by more than 20% year on year in Q1 2024, and Meta is forecast to earn $155.6 billion in ad revenue this year, representing a 63% share of global social spend, fuelled by a wave of investment from Chinese exporters and the popularity of its AI tools. 

Tools like Meta’s Advantage+, which automate aspects of creative and media planning, are becoming increasingly popular with advertisers. However, some brands have complained of erosion to campaign efficiencies.

Commenting on the issues around walled gardens and third-party data, Gillian Collison, global head of social at Group M, said: “The challenge remains to enable brands to leverage their own data and analytics to understand target audiences at a deeper level, enabling personalised experiences across all mediums.”

TikTok growth to slow in 2024 as Pinterest and Snap regain ground

Warc Media forecasts that TikTok will earn $23.1 billion in ad revenue this year. The 18.3% year-on-year increase marks a significant slowdown from the 87.8% growth rate it clocked up last year, despite the introduction of new search and shopping ad formats. 

Given TikTok’s unique popularity with Gen Z audiences, many advertisers in the US will be hoping a ban does not come into effect, but rival social media platforms Pinterst and Snapchat are likely to experience a resurgence, said Warc.  

Pinterest is set to enjoy a 17.3% year-on-year increase in ad revenue in 2024, while Snapchat is forecast to grow 13.7%. This strong growth of both platforms is attributed to a refocus and leaning into their respective strengths.

However, Twitter/X’s ad revenue woes are set to continue in 2024. The Elon Musk-owned platform’s ad revenue in 2024 is predicted to decline by 6.4% globally and 5.1% in the US. However, compared with its startling 46.4% decrease in 2023, it marks something of a stabilisation for the embattled platform, largely due to political adspend. But marketers still remain concerned with brand safety and X’s much publicised issues with bots.

Ad loads are rising across social platforms amid homogenisation 

Meta reportedly increased its ad load in Q4 2023 to 19.1%, with most Reels sessions now having seven or more ads. Platforms are aiming to improve monetisation "efficiency" with new search and shopping ad formats.

As TikTok prepares to launch a photo sharing app, Notes, and Meta invests in AI search tools, social platforms are converging in the advertising formats and commerce functionality they offer to brands.

Commenting on the findings of the report, Rachel Morman, global head of social at PHD Global, said: “AI offers incredible new opportunities for [social advertisers], delivering multi-advertiser contextual ads, but that may not be suitable for all brands – such as those that need to heavily consider exclusivity and adjacency.”

Social media growth across global regions 

In the US, Warc predicts that social media adspend is set to reach $75.6 billion this year. Facebook remains the biggest player, forecast to reach $36.3 billion, followed by Instagram ($21.3 billion), and TikTok ($10.1 billion).

Major Chinese social platforms have suffered an ad revenue slowdown since 2021, however, signs of positivity are emerging: video and photo sharing app Xiaohongshu, with 312 million monthly active users in China, has reported its first profit; and Douyin, owned by ByteDance, is forecast to earn $30.2 billion in ad revenue, $7 billion more than TikTok, its western sibling.

In Asia-Pacific, more than 70% of consumers in these markets use social media across multiple stages of their buying journeys. GWI data shows that social media users in APAC are 11.2% more likely than the global average to purchase a product or service on a weekly basis because of social media influencer endorsement.

In the UK, social media adspend grew 15.6% year on year in 2023, and is forecast to reach £8.8 billion ($11 billion) in 2025, according to the latest AA/Warc Expenditure Report. Much of this growth is attributed to rising spend on social video formats, up 20% year on year, according to IAB UK.